As piores Cassandras já atiraram foguetes ao ar. Outros recusam-se a acreditar e congelam. Outros continuam mergulhados num lago de optimismo e não vêem, não querem ver ou não querem mostrar aos outros o que realmente conseguem entrever para o futuro próximo: o possível fim do Euro e, quem sabe, da União Europeia. Outros ainda, como eu, não sabem muito bem o que achar mas, pior ainda, não se decidiram ainda muito bem se essa funesta possibilidade é melhor ou pior do que aquilo que temos actualmente.
Para ajudar a clarificar, no entanto, temos Niall Ferguson, que anda atento ao que se passa na União Europeia. Com a crise que está a assolar o sistema monetário europeu, com epicentro mais preocupante na Grécia, o historiador escocês traça uma «biografia» do Euro desde o projecto inicial de moeda única europeia até hoje, em que lança um dilema, e simultaneamente um desafio, aos fãs do federalismo europeu: vão continuar com a ilusão de uma moeda única sem sustentabilidade ou completam a integração dos sistemas fiscais numa autoridade tributária centralizada na sede da UE?
Fica aqui uma pequena amostra do artigo de Niall Ferguson, a ler:
«Crisis—from the Greek "krisis," for a turning point in a disease—is one of many English words we owe to the ancient Athenians. Now their modern descendants are reminding us what it really means.Just when it seemed safe to start using the word "recovery," a Greek crisis is threatening the world economy, and the very existence of the world's second-biggest currency.
The euro seemed like such a good idea just 10 years ago. Europe had already achieved remarkable levels of integration as a trading bloc, to say nothing of its consolidation as a legal community. Monetary union offered all kinds of alluring benefits. It would end forever the exchange-rate volatility that had bedeviled the continent since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed rates in the 1970s. No more annoying and costly currency conversions for travelers and businesses. And greater price transparency would improve the flow of intra-European trade.
A single European currency also seemed to offer a sweet trade. European countries with problems of excessive public debt would get German-style low inflation and interest rates. And the Germans could quietly hope that the euro would be a little weaker than their own super-strong Deutsche mark.
Monetary union had geopolitical appeal, too. In the wake of German reunification, the French worried that Europe was heading for a new kind of domination by its biggest member state. Getting the Germans to pool monetary sovereignty would increase the power of the other members over a potential Fourth Reich. And, best of all, it would create an alternative reserve currency to challenge the mighty U.S. dollar. (...)»
The euro seemed like such a good idea just 10 years ago. Europe had already achieved remarkable levels of integration as a trading bloc, to say nothing of its consolidation as a legal community. Monetary union offered all kinds of alluring benefits. It would end forever the exchange-rate volatility that had bedeviled the continent since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed rates in the 1970s. No more annoying and costly currency conversions for travelers and businesses. And greater price transparency would improve the flow of intra-European trade.
A single European currency also seemed to offer a sweet trade. European countries with problems of excessive public debt would get German-style low inflation and interest rates. And the Germans could quietly hope that the euro would be a little weaker than their own super-strong Deutsche mark.
Monetary union had geopolitical appeal, too. In the wake of German reunification, the French worried that Europe was heading for a new kind of domination by its biggest member state. Getting the Germans to pool monetary sovereignty would increase the power of the other members over a potential Fourth Reich. And, best of all, it would create an alternative reserve currency to challenge the mighty U.S. dollar. (...)»
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